2019/01/06

The Green New Deal, explained - Vox

<humor>This wide-ranging article leaves the impression that the Green New Deal is, like the article itself, doomed by its broad scope.</humor> I will randomly quote one of its many interesting points.

The Green New Deal, explained - Vox:
... climate change impacts are going to cost more than climate mitigation anyway. The GND is big, but “big things will happen,” says Chakrabarti. “The two options are, either we’re going to intentionally do the big things we want, or big things we don’t want will happen to us.”

We're screwed if we do nothing. Might as well find some interesting weak spots and start working on them.

Play Bill

I sometimes have trouble keeping track of people quoted in articles. Here's a playbill for this one.

People

Evan Weber: a co-founder of the Sunrise Movement.

Rhiana Gunn-Wright: a policy analyst employed by the nascent New Consensus.

Saikat Chakrabarti: Chief of Staff to U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and a co-founder of Brand New Congress.

Greg Carlock: a researcher, essayist and podcaster who writes about U.S. policy, governance, climate change, the Green New Deal, and political philosophy. Currently works for Data for Progress. If he were a software developer, I think he would be an advocate for rapid prototyping; the article quotes him as favoring the method (for new policy/programs) of "Pilot and scale".

Organizations

Sunrise Movement: a youth-led organization advocating for a Green New Deal (bold climate action coupled with efforts to address worsening social inequities).

Data for Progress: bills itself as "the think tank for the future of progressivism", and as representating citizens who believe in Medicare for all, a Green Job guarantee, and the abolition of ICE.

New Consensus: a policy non-profit that identifies itself as follows:

We are a global, distributed network of academics, creators, activists, leaders and entrepreneurs working to make the new consensus the standard operating system for national economies around the world.

Brand New Congress: an organization founded after the 2016 elections with the goal of recruiting 400 "fresh new faces" to run for Congress.

2018/12/22

Lamar Smith Got His

LAMAR SMITH: A ranch, an oil field, and a career colored by skepticism -- Friday, December 21, 2018 -- www.eenews.net:

As fossil fuels were being removed from his Texas lands, Smith was making a name for himself as a sharp skeptic of climate science...
"It's important for the American public, for constituents, to know what their members are invested in, where their financial ties are, to make sure that they're acting in good faith," said Alex Baumgart, a researcher with the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics. "To make sure that the policies being implemented are not self-serving and that they are geared toward constituents instead of furthering a financial interest."
Also see Wikipedia.

2018/12/19

Notes on the Fickle Fortunes of Bighorns

"Running With The Herd: A NATURE Short Film" meshes with some recent reading. Rough notes follow.

Flickr

In 2010, on Flickr, I saw photographs of bighorn in the Rio Grande Gorge, taken by a river guide. This created a tiny ambition to see them for myself.

On July 4th, 2011, I took a walk along the West Rim Trail, not really expecting to see anything - after all, this trail is more than 700 feet above the box. But I was lucky, and I got to spend a half hour or so watching three ewes and a lamb feed near the edge of the rim.

A couple of months later I returned and, in nearly the same spot, was stopped in my tracks by three young rams, who grazed right up to where I was standing.

Bighorn

In October, 2012, my luck wasn't so good. I saw only one ewe, from such a great distance that I could barely tell that she was a sheep. Reviewing the photos later, I could see that she was carrying a radio collar.

Why was she wearing a collar? What was the story of interactions between humans and these impressive creatures who, until I saw that collar, I had imagined to be completely wild?

New Mexico Wildlife Center

On July 4, 2015, I was finishing my volunteer shift at the New Mexico Wildlife Center. As I walked out to my car I was met by a weary, late-middle-aged couple. I thought they were going to ask if the Center was open. Instead the lady explained that they had called ahead and were delivering a baby robin, which the man had been hand-raising for the past several days.

This turned out to be one of the most enjoyable afternoons of my recent life. Maybe I'll write it up sometime. For now, the important part is that we passed the next hour or so on the front porch, talking about our respective wildlife encounters.

The man had spent plenty of time watching bighorns in the Taos mountains. And he knew a fair bit about how they had come to be in the Gorge. He explained that they had been introduced only recently, around 2008.

He also told about the old New Mexican sheep herders whom he had befriended when he first moved to Taos, and about the bajadas - the trails – they had used to bring their herds down to the river to drink.

Those bajadas have created a little romantic fantasy in my imagination. The sheepherders are gone, but those trails are still used. I have followed bighorn tracks down some of them. The enduring picture is of a succession of wild sheep, then domestic, then wild again, all finding the same paths down to the water.

Last year I found an article in the Taos News that fleshed out the man's story about how the bighorn came to live along the Rio Grande:

Much like the river otters that now swim in the river at the bottom of the gorge, bighorn sheep were — up until not that long ago — a big part of the order of things in the southern stretch of the Rocky Mountains we call home.

(River otters! That was another wonderful, lucky encounter for me, and the resulting video brought me into contact, through iNaturalist, with one of the people who had helped reintroduce them into the upper Rio Grande. But I digress.)

According to Eric Rominger, bighorn sheep biologist for the New Mexico Department of Game and Fish, bighorns were extirpated in New Mexico around the turn of the 20th century. The last known evidence of a bighorn in New Mexico was a track found in the Truchas Peaks south of Taos.
The reintroduction of the bighorn sheep started in the 1940s when a group of sheep were gathered from Alberta and brought to the Sandias. A herd was started in the Pecos Mountains with a mix of fresh blood from Alberta along with a few Sandia sheep — the founding stock for many of the rest of New Mexico’s herds.
Sheep from the Pecos were brought to the Wheeler Peak Wilderness in 1993. As Michael A. Martinez, hunt coordinator for Taos Pueblo’s wildlife office, said, “Of course, they eventually made their way on the pueblo side. The majority of those bighorns winter on the pueblo side’s abundance of south-facing slopes, moving back to the public side during the summer.”
Then, in 2005, the Taos Pueblo war chief, lead biologist and director of wildlife decided to try to bring the bighorns back to the inverted mountain landscape of the gorge. Taos Pueblo took an initial group of sheep from its side of the Wheeler Peak chain, and the state department supplemented the herd in 2007 with more sheep from the Pecos.

This must be the best combined job title in the world: "Taos Pueblo war chief, lead biologist and director of wildlife."

It bears repeating: I'm deeply grateful for all that Taos Pueblo is doing to care for their home. Bighorn, otters, advocacy for creation of the Rio Grande del Norte National Monument - who knows what else they are doing? The main aim may be to take care of the land, but in doing so they've made it possible for mere mortals to stumble upon amazing animals while out on a day hike.

Beatty's Cabin

This fall I made my first treks into the Pecos north of Cowles. I'd seen photos and video from near the Truchas peaks, of human encounters with proper mountain-dwelling bighorn. I was hoping for similar luck.

Please don't hound the sheep

Alas, the only bighorn I came across had already had its own, horrible meeting with humans.

Feast

This year, through a series of lucky accidents, I finally learned about the book "Beatty's Cabin". It's a great, revelatory book. (The web carries several wonderful stories about its author, Elliott Barker, who in his lifetime seems to have regarded the Pecos as his ideal place on earth.)

"Beatty's Cabin" backs up the details of the Taos News article. Like the Nature short film, it explains how bighorn have been harmed both by hunting and by close encounters with domestic sheep.

The Rocky Mountain bighorn sheep, also, were indigenous to this and other areas of the state but their meat was considered the best of all wild meat and, hence, they were sought after like select items on a bargain counter.
In 1873, Coues and Yarrow reported sheep were plentiful in the mountains east of Santa Fe (the upper Pecos) but they were to disappear rapidly after that. Tom Stewart told me many times that the last mountain sheep killed in the area was taken by Jim Bullock at the base of Santa Fe Baldy; near Lake Katherine, in 1902; however, naturalist Vernon Bailey reports in his Mammals of New Mexico that he saw unmistakable tracks of mountain sheep in the Truchas Peaks area in 1903.
It is most probable that rifles were not the sole cause of the depletion of these denizens of the high, timber-line area. When domestic sheep were brought into the high country to graze for brief summer periods, they were often infected with scabies and, perhaps, other communicable diseases or parasites which could easily be transmitted to the bighorns. Domestic sheep could be cured of scabies by forcing them to swim through vats of Black Leaf 40 solution, but Nature provided no such method of treatment for the wild bighorns, and they would be defenseless against the ravages of parasitic infections or diseases new to them, just as the Indians were against smallpox, first brought to them by the white man.

"Beatty's Cabin" ends its story of the bighorn in New Mexico with a statement of hope, one that appears to have been fulfilled.

... with the untimely passing of these spectacular creatures, the jagged crags and templed peaks very definitely lost something of their hereditary charm and glory. On timber-line ridges and in the coves, alpine clover each year sends up its velvety, gray-green leaves and pink-white blossoms in supplication for the return of God’s free wild creatures who once fattened upon its succulence. But none return to eat it. The brows of the high, grassy hills, furrowed and wrinkled by unnatural gullies, frown disapprovingly upon the substitution of herds of domestic woollies for the little bands of wild bighorns that once scanned the glorious landscape from their crests. Restoration is past due.
One effort was made, in 1933, by the State Department of Game and Fish to re-establish bighorns in the Pecos high country. Six animals, two bucks and four ewes, were obtained through the courtesy of the Canadian National Park Service from Banff, Alberta, Canada, and released at the west base of the range. A year later the two rams were seen by Forest Ranger J. W. Johnson at the head of the Pecos on the Santa Barbara Divide, but they have not been heard of since and it must be presumed they met the same fate as their native predecessors. With the material reduction of the number of domestic sheep permitted to summer graze this extremely high vulnerable area and the elimination of the dread scabies from the herds, there is now a good possibility that the Rocky Mountain bighorns might yet be restored to their hereditary range. God speed the day!
Ram

My Heart Belongs to Nature

I'll give the last word to the man who told those great stories on the patio of New Mexico Wildlife Center – and in his own voice, to boot.

2018/12/18

Scripting News sums it up

Scripting News:

That gets boring. It is significant that he's a mob boss. The tragedy is that we can't seem to do anything about it.
Yep.

2018/12/09

Garry Kasparov explains Putin's interest in Syria

Garry Kasparov Says We Are Living in Chaos, But Remains an Incorrigible Optimist | The New Yorker:

There is a war in Syria? Excellent. Obama has washed his hands of it? Great: I go in, displace people, they flee to Europe, this creates problems, the right rises.
A brilliant, in-a-nutshell summary.
... they made a conscious decision to create not a Chinese-type system of blocking access to information but its opposite: a flood of information. They created a deluge. For example, they create entire troll debates. You think that there is an argument raging on the Internet, when in reality it’s a script.
There's much more, well worth reading.

2018/11/28

Burning Fossil Fuels Almost Ended All Life on Earth - The Atlantic

This would be a great read even if it were just science fiction. Beautifully written, start to finish.

Burning Fossil Fuels Almost Ended All Life on Earth - The Atlantic:
Unsurprisingly, there’s no life in these ghastly rocks (even most plant life checks out at temperatures not much more than 40 degrees Celsius), making them exceedingly difficult to date.
“There’s absolutely nothing to date in any of these rocks because everything’s dead,” says Knapp. “But what we can say is that this is definitely Permian.”
...
“I see [a few] possibilities. The first is that things just really got that crazy. Shit happened. The second is that we just really don’t understand positive feedback loops yet. That’s the scary option. The third is that you can’t do it without a supercontinent. We need to be studying these time periods when carbon dioxide caused problems, because right now we don’t understand them at all. It should be a national priority to study the Permian to figure out what the hell happened.”
...
At the top of the canyon the rocks gave up their Martian hue at long last, and were etched with the geological traces of tranquil lakes and river channels and even dinosaur footprints. Up in those rocks the Earth was finally recovering, and the reptiles of the Earth’s most storied age—the Mesozoic—were making their tentative claims to a world that they would come to rule for more than 100 million years. But down here along the dusty trail was the end of the Permian, and the planet was still fighting for its life.
...
Their precious cargo was the lifeblood of civilization. The empty train cars were returning from the nodes of civilization, like spent red blood cells, to this giant, unyielding pump of geological energy in the prairie... They were shuttled along the infrastructural aorta before branching into capillaries where they’d deliver their carbon to far off power plants to be metabolized near cities, by metropolitan mitochondria.

The phrase "global weirding", referring to the strange signs in the fossil record leading up to the Permian extinction, recurs in the article. I can't help thinking that would make a great name for a science-explainer YouTube series...

2018/11/26

Trump Administration’s Strategy on Climate: Try to Bury Its Own Scientific Report - The New York Times

Trump Administration’s Strategy on Climate: Try to Bury Its Own Scientific Report - The New York Times:

In publishing the assessment, White House officials made a calculation that Mr. Trump’s core base of supporters most likely would not care that its findings are so at odds with the president’s statements and policies.
That view is supported by Steven J. Milloy, a member of Mr. Trump’s E.P.A. transition team who runs the website junkscience.com, which is aimed at casting doubt on the established science of human-caused climate change. “We don’t care,” he said. “In our view, this is made-up hysteria anyway.”

 

From Mann, Michael. The Madhouse Effect: How Climate Change Denial Is Threatening Our Planet, Destroying Our Politics, and Driving Us Crazy (Kindle Locations 1248-1257). Columbia University Press. Kindle Edition:
[Steven J.] Milloy is no scientist, but he’s darned good at playing one on television — Fox News, to be specific — where he is presented as an environmental science expert. Milloy, in this capacity, regularly calls out the “junk science” implicating tobacco products in human health ailments, pesticides in environmental ailments, and fossil fuels in our current planetary ailment.
What Milloy has failed to disclose while busy presenting himself as an independent “junk science” expert on Fox News is that, as noted earlier, he has accepted payments from Phillip Morris, ExxonMobil, and Syngenta for his advocacy efforts. When journalist Paul Thacker reported these facts in the New Republic in 2006, he also reported the reaction from Fox News, which claimed to be unaware of the financial ties and gave Milloy the lightest of slaps on the wrist, conceding only that “any affiliation he had should have been disclosed.”

2018/11/25

Natural gas firms have a proposal to convert home heating to hydrogen | Ars Technica

Good for the U.K.:

Natural gas firms have a proposal to convert home heating to hydrogen | Ars Technica:

The UK has been more aggressive about curbing carbon emissions than the US. In 2015, the country stated that its goal was to close all coal-fired power plants in the country by 2025, and in 2017, the UK electrical grid had its first coal-free day.

I have wished for most of my adult life that the leadership of my country could see economic advantage in pushing toward clean energy, increased energy efficiency, and so on.

If you follow the Fully Charged show on YouTube, by now you've seen lots of ways in which the U.K. is pushing ahead of the U.S. EVs, home batteries and smart grid technology, and more - there's a lot of innovation around energy production and efficiency in western Europe in general.

2018/11/20

On the fundamental interconnectedness of all things

From twitter:

Michael McFaul - @McFaul: Hey @Grady_Booch , I want to learn Python. Whats your recommendation for how at my stage in life?
Grady Booch - @Grady_Booch: Hey @gvanrossum you have another fan.
Professor Michael McFaul is a former U.S. Ambassador to Russia. Grady Booch is perhaps best known for developing UML. Guido van Rossum is the creator of Python, the programming language (and community) that has made my professional life so interesting. Suddenly I wonder whether anything on twitter is real ;)

2018/11/12

Laurence Tribe explains all the ways Whitaker's "appointment" is illegal

Yes, Whitaker's Appointment Is Unconstitutional. Here's How To Challenge It. | HuffPost:

[The Attorney General Succession Act] created a line of succession... which would require the position to be filled in this case by the sitting deputy, Rod Rosenstein. It’s hard to imagine what legislative action could be clearer, unless the Senate is expected to pass the law again, now with the added words “and this time we really mean it.”
[Whether or not Sessions was fired] matters because of the Vacancies Reform Act... For the purposes of the VRA, “vacancies” aren’t created by firing. So if a court were to conclude that Sessions actually “resigned,” then Trump and Whitaker could argue that, because of the VRA, anyone working for the Department of Justice could fill the vacancy for up to seven months (210 days).
Yet even if a court were to agree both that Sessions resigned and that the VRA applies ... any federal court will recognize that the Constitution trumps all. And that’s where the big guns get introduced.
The Constitution in Article II permits Congress to empower “the President alone” to appoint “inferior Officers.” All other “Officers of the United States” ― known as “principal officers” ― must be appointed “by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate.”
The attorney general, however, is a principal officer entitled to Senate confirmation... But Whitaker was never confirmed by the Senate to his new post, nor to any position in the line of succession to that role, or even to any position with similar responsibilities...
So being time-limited – Whitaker serves, as we’ve noted, for at most 210 days – can’t in itself erase the need for Senate confirmation.

2018/11/10

Empathy

I'm a software developer from the early 1980s - a stereotypical asocial type, not very empathetic, not very well able to understand the world from the perspective of another.

In 2015 an old friend boiled up on social media, aroused by the prospect of Syrian refugees coming to the United States. "Will you fight? I'll fight!" he announced to everyone.

He wasn't alone. Many in the U.S. saw the refugees as terrorists, because of 9/11, Afghanistan, etc., and as cowards, because they were fleeing. "I would stay and defend my home!"

The news at the time carried images of apartment buildings gutted and flattened. What was there to defend? Friends and families lay crushed beneath collapsed concrete or pulped by shrapnel. Who was left to protect?

It was noted even then that climate events had helped trigger the Syrian civil war. A severe drought had killed livestock, raised food prices, made farmers flee from their fields to the cities. The civil war, triggered in part by their government's inability to relieve suffering, had made Syrians of all kinds flee for their lives.

By 2015 I'd traveled a bit. At times I'd lived, very briefly, without heat and running water. That mild experience gave a weak sense of what the world must be like for those refugees. No heat, no water. No food. No shelter from the elements. No place to relieve oneself. No clean clothing - nothing clean.

Try to stop after each of those items. Imagine what your life would be like without that one thing.

I'm lucky: life gave me experiences to compensate a little for my lack of empathy.

This morning the news describes the destruction in California.

Shirley Hertel returned to her Thousand Oaks home Friday morning after watching it catch fire on TV just hours before.
The sight left her in tears.
...
“I don’t even know that I even understand what happened here,” [said Shirley Hertel, a Thousand Oaks resident].
She took the fire — and the water damage she had just fixed in the home last month — as a sign that she should leave the city she’s lived in her whole life, she said. Her other daughters and granddaughter live in Kentucky, she said, and she wants to watch her grow up.
“This will always be my home, but Kentucky is where I’ll live,” she said.

Her home has been destroyed. There is nothing left for her to defend in Thousand Oaks. She is fleeing California for Kentucky.

At least she doesn't need to worry whether Kentucky will let her in.

U.S. citizens are now among the planet's refugees. Will this concrete experience bring us a little empathy?


The Oakies were also climate refugees. But the dust bowl was a long time ago. It can no longer give us empathy through experience.

What can bring us empathy is just as likely, in this case, to bring us a Malthusian mess, with less food, water and livable earth divided among more people.

Read it, and weep

We have become a heartless, stupid people. 'Vaya con Dios:' the impossible life of a judge on the US immigration frontline | US news | The Guardian:

2018/11/07

On Improving Campaign Coverage

Jay Rosen yesterday produced an interesting twitter essay: 'Campaign coverage: the road not taken.' There was a path the American press could have walked, but did not. This alternative way was illuminated as far back as 1992. Our political journalists declined it. And here we are. This thread is that story. One of the problems with election coverage as it stands is that no one has any idea what it means to succeed at it. Predicting the winner? Is that success? Even if journalists could do that —and they can’t — it would not be much of a public service, would it? A very weird thing about horse race or “game” coverage is that it doesn’t answer to any identifiable need of the voter. Should I vote for the candidate with the best strategy for capturing my vote? Do I walk into the voting booth clutching a list of who’s ahead in the polls? In 1992, the @theobserver in Charlotte, NC teamed up with @Poynter to pioneer a different way to cover elections. The idea was very simple: campaign coverage should be grounded in what voters want the candidates to talk about. Which voters? The ones you are trying to inform. This came to be called the "citizens agenda" approach to campaign coverage. It revolves around a single question. Here is the question: "What do you want the candidates to be discussing as they compete for votes?" From good answers to that everything else in the model flows. A few things about that question, "What do you want the candidates to be discussing as they compete for votes?" Notice what it is not. It is not "who's going to win?" It's not "who are you going to vote for?" And it's not "which party would do a better job of addressing..." The whole purpose of the citizens agenda approach is to find an alternative to the horse race style in campaign coverage, which starts with "who's gonna win?" What are the keys to winning? How close is the race? Which tactics seem to be working? What do the latest polls say? The horse race style is the default pattern. It's easy to criticize, and I have done that. A lot. But the default has some impressive strengths. It's repeatable in every election, everywhere. It creates suspense and thus audience interest. It tells you where to put resources. Here’s how the alternative style — the citizens agenda in election coverage— works. First you need to know who your community is. If informing the public is the mission statement of every good journalist, then identifying the public you’re trying to inform is basic to the job. If you can identify the particular public you’re trying to inform — and you know how to reach those people — then you can ask them the question at the core of the citizens agenda. “What do you want the candidates to be discussing as they compete for your vote?” The key is to pose this question (for months) in every possible form. Interviews with reporters. Focus groups with researchers. Call and leave us a message. Email us. Tweet us. Text us. Fill out this form. Speak up at our forum. Comment on our Facebook page. Talk to us! In addition to those inputs, the polling budget has to be redirected. Away from the horse race, toward the organizing principle in our revised approach, “What do you want the candidates to be discussing as they compete for votes?” You can poll for that. But it is not normal. Put it all together, and the journalists covering the campaign have what they need to name, frame and synthesize the citizens agenda. The product is a ranked list, a priority sketch. The top 8-10 issues or problems that voters most want the candidates to be talking about. The citizens agenda, an exercise in high quality public listening, is both a published product (tested, designed, packaged properly for multiple platforms) and a template for covering the rest of the campaign. It tells you how to "win" at campaign coverage. Or stop losing. But you have to get the list right. If you can spread out and properly canvas the community, ask good questions, listen well to the answers, transcend your limited starting points (your bias) and piece together an accurate and nuanced understanding, then you have something. The template has multiple purposes. It helps focus your “issue” coverage and voters guide. It informs your explainers. And it keeps you on track. Instead of just reacting to events (or his tweets...) you have instructions for how to stay centered around voters' concerns. When a candidate comes to town and gives a speech, you map what is said against the citizens agenda. When your reporters interview the candidate, questions are drawn from the citizens agenda. If the candidate speaks to your editorial board, you know what to ask about. But it goes beyond that. Synthesizing a citizens agenda at the beginning creates a mission statement for your election coverage later on. Now you know what you’re supposed to do. Press the candidates to talk about what your readers and listeners want most to hear about. The citizens agenda approach in campaign coverage (sorry for the dorky name) also tells reporters, editors and producers how they’re doing. Because if you’ve done the work and your list is accurate, the candidates will have to start talking about the items on that agenda. That’s how you know it’s working. That’s how you know you’re winning. Now you can press for better answers, and dig deep on things you know people care about. Public service! This I can tell you. If reporters ask the people they’re trying to inform, “What do you want the candidates to be discussing as they compete for votes?” no one is going to reply with, “You’re down five points in the latest polls. Realistically, can you recover?” The citizens agenda approach in campaign coverage was first tried at the @theobserver in Charlotte, NC in 1992. I wrote about that adventure in my book, What Are Journalists For? in 1999. I explained it again in 2010 at my blog. http://pressthink.org/2010/08/the-citizens-agenda-in-campaign-coverage/ So it's been out there. My own read is that it never took off because this is not what political reporters want to do. They want to hang with the pros. They want to pick apart the strategy. The best ones (and there are some very good ones) want to explain what the candidates are appealing to. In us. Yesterday, @Sulliview gave a grade of C-minus to the campaign press. “Too many journalists allow Trump to lead them around by the nose,” she said. “With the president as their de facto assignment editor.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/defensive-caravan-fixated-and-trump-obsessed-the-media-blow-it-again-just-not-as-badly/2018/11/04/e4c9efcc-deb7-11e8-b3f0-62607289efee_story.html And I agree with that. But here's the kicker... You can’t keep from getting sucked into Trump’s agenda without a firm grasp on your own. But where does that agenda come from? It can’t come from you, as a campaign journalist. Who cares what you think? It has to come from the voters you are trying to inform. A demonstrable public service, the citizens agenda approach puts the campaign press on the side of the voters and their right to have their major concerns addressed by the people who are bidding for power. This is the road not taken. Now I have to add that good reporters on the campaign trail spend a lot of time listening to voters. This happens. They ask about the issues on voters' minds. But it’s pitched to who’s ahead and why. To which appeals are resonating. To the sophisticated professionals who cover elections, the “citizens agenda in campaign coverage” sounds — let’s be honest — a little too earnest, a bit minor league. Civics class, as against drinks with political insiders at the Des Moines Marriott. I know this. I get it. Thing is, the only way up from the hole they’re in is to pitch their journalism at an electorate they understand better than the politicians who are leading it off a cliff. You don’t get there with a savvy analysis of who’s going to win this round. You have to represent. 6 November

2018/11/01

The Trump Administration's Fuel Efficiency Math Is All Wrong - The Atlantic

This is what you get by deleting unpleasant facts. The Trump Administration's Fuel Efficiency Math Is All Wrong - The Atlantic:

The fine print of the proposal says that “newer, safer cars” will prevent 30 deaths every year at most—a far cry from the claimed 1,000. But an EPA memo included in the proposal warns that safe will increase traffic fatalities, leading to 17 more deaths every year.
In any case, “a large portion” of the lives that safe claims to save ... arise instead from an erroneous calculation spat out by a broken computer model; and an assumption—never advertised by the Trump administration—that Americans will drive less when forced to buy less fuel-efficient cars.
At a crucial moment in the scrappage model’s analysis, it mysteriously deletes roughly 700 billion miles of nationwide driving from its simulation of the Trump rollback. It does so due to a nonsensical assumption that owners of old cars—cars built between 1977 and today—will drive much, much less under the rollback than they would under the Obama-era rules.
Read the whole article. The Trump administration seems intent on using lies and distortions to justify its prejudices.

2018/10/31

Freedom isn't free

Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) writes well. In his first sentence he captures my own embarrassment: that a lifetime of skepticism, about the motives of those who govern, has turned out to be basic ingratitude for a real gift. RadioFreeTom

Speaking for myself, one thing I learned over the past few years - to my shame - is how much I took my Constitutional rights and the stability of the American republic for granted. I treated freedom of speech as my birthright, and never had to exercise a bit of effort for it.
I treated the granite-solid nature of the Constitution, the balance of the U.S. civil-military relationship, the independence of the judiciary - all as facts of nature rather than as precious jewels to be guarded against theft from within.
I was plenty vigilant about defending our nation from foreign threats, because I believed that my fellow citizens, whatever our collective sins or flaws, would never countenance attacks on our common home and our right to live in it.
Some out there will say this reflects “privilege,” earned by my skin or gender. Maybe so. But even when we did wrong, we - as a nation - wanted to do right. When we failed, we fought in public about our shortcomings. We prided ourselves on this.
On a personal level, I have never experienced the number of attempts to silence me, demands I be removed from my job, and even physically threatened as often as I have since 2015. Not in any post, not in any city, not during any other administration.
This, I realize, is how others have felt before this. But I always believed that the system, the society, the law, even most of our leaders, were on the side of right and would defend any of us against such thuggery. I know now I took this too much for granted.
We are not past the point of no return. But it is time to exercise every Constitutional right, especially *speech* and *voting* - with no excuses, without whining, without hedging. This is a time for fortitude, consistency, confidence, and dedication to the American idea.
We don’t get many second chances in a human life. The life of nations is even less forgiving. We have, as a republic, lived through multiple near-death moments. We are perilously close to running out of chances.

2018/10/29

This is not greatness

Dave Winer lays it out in Scripting News:

Jewish people hiding while an armed fascist hunts them. In America. My grandfather said it would happen. I didn't believe him. Here we are.
On CBS and CNN and probably others the panelists all agree that of course Trump is not responsible for the massacre in Pittsburgh and the bombings of Democratic leaders. This is the bubble they live in. It's fiction. Of course Trump is responsible for all of it.
Shame on Trump. Shame on us. Vote, to put a stop to this bullshit.

2018/10/26

David Frum on why Republicans chose Trumpocracy over democracy - Vox

David Frum on why Republicans chose Trumpocracy over democracy - Vox The whole article is well worth reading, but some bits were especially striking. Two examples:

When highly committed parties strongly believe [in] things that they cannot achieve democratically, they don’t give up on their beliefs — they give up on democracy.
The only way to check Trumpocracy is through a constitutional movement that’s bigger than politics. The whole reason we have constitutional politics is to manage our differences. The goal is not to extinguish all differences; it’s to protect the right to differ.

Intentional Liar

Scaramucci Says Trump ‘Intentionally’ Lies to Inflame Opponents - Bloomberg:

Scaramucci, who’s promoting a new book, said answers by the media and Trump’s opponents to the president’s untruthful statements have been ineffectual. They respond like bullied schoolchildren pleading to hall monitors -- calling out Trump’s lies, which doesn’t work, he said.
“If someone’s taking your lunch money in the cafeteria, if you call the hall monitor, it’s not going to help you,” Scaramucci said. Instead, “you’ve got to defeat the person at the table with your peer group.”
I get the diagnosis but not the prescription. Does he think the media and his opponents should gang up on Trump? Perhaps they should stop reporting his actual lies and instead replace the specifics of each lie with an assertion that "Donald Trump lied"? What exactly is he recommending they all do?

2018/10/24

Kleptocrat

Sarah Kendzior, via Twitter:

Trump would rather have his base think of him as a "nationalist" than as a kleptocrat. In reality, Trump's a wealthy white supremacist who partners with international billionaires and crimelords to strip America down for parts and sell it off to the highest bidders. 23 October
Trump does not give a shit about America. His racism is real, but his circle is international. This is not even "America First". It's always been Trump first, America last. Follow the money -- from your pockets into Trump's and then into offshore accounts of him and his backers.

Sarah Kendzior understands authoritarians better than I ever will. But even I can see the sense in these assertions. And the similarities to the end of the Soviet Union are just as obvious: Putin and the Russian kleptocracy did exactly this.

When a government privatizes an asset that it controls, it is selling to a private concern a thing that was created through the collective efforts of the governed. Therefore the proceeds should be distributed evenly among the governed.

This seems especially obvious for a form of government such as communism, that emphasizes collectivism.

But that isn't what happened in Russia. I need to read "Winter is Coming", and to take notes this time, in order to understand what did happen. Where did the oligarchs find the wealth to buy privatized government assets? Did they just steal them, with the aid of the former KGB? Did they somehow depress their perceived value – label them junk or toxic – to get a better deal?

In any case, value that had been created by the Soviet people, collectively, was not distributed evenly among them. The kleptocrats stole that value from the citizenry as a whole, and then took it out of the country in order to secure it. The countries where they secreted it, including Great Britain, Cyprus, Iceland and the United States, turned a blind eye to its origins because they wanted to use it to enrich themselves.


The following are excerpts from "Kasparov, Garry. Winter Is Coming: Why Vladimir Putin and the Enemies of the Free World Must Be Stopped. PublicAffairs. Kindle Edition." The book does not seem to explain in detail the origins of the Russian oligarchy. It does provide explain how they worked with corrupt leadership, starting with Boris Yeltsin, to strengthen their positions.
The history of left-wing dictatorships transitioning to democracy with market economies is a short collection of horror stories. Communism is like an autoimmune disorder; it doesn’t do the killing itself, but it weakens the system so much that the victim is left helpless and unable to fight off anything else.
Even twenty-five years later, most outbreaks of socialist rhetoric are limited to populist would-be autocrats keen to redistribute wealth to their cronies and with stagnant economies dependent on natural resources.
On reasons why the former Soviet republics were so eager to become former republics:
There was also a power-grab incentive factor in many cases. Regional bureaucrats and party bosses dreamed of being autocrats and realized they would have more power and a greater ability to line their pockets in independent states, even if their economies and regimes remained largely dependent on Moscow.
By 1996, in Kasparov's telling, the oligarchy was already well established. They helped Yeltsin, who had helped them, to win re-election through illegally excessive campaign contributions:
In 1996, Yeltsin had little popular support but he could count on many of the oligarchs whose fortunes he had enabled and the financial backing of the West.
Every day struggling Russians read about the new billionaires being created by cozy deals with the government. You didn’t have to understand how things like privatization vouchers, loans-for-shares, and rigged auctions worked to realize there was a huge scam going on. Worried that reforms might be rolled back by conservatives, Yeltsin’s reform team, led by Yegor Gaidar and Chubais, started selling things off at a frantic pace at absurdly low valuations.
Such sanctioned looting continued under Putin, of course, and continues today. The difference was that in the 1990s Russians could find out about it.
On why Yeltsin and others turned to Putin:
After years of looting and capital flight it was getting harder and harder to scapegoat the West for how badly things were going. Yeltsin’s approval rating was dismal once again, another reason he and his oligarch backers were eager to find a fresh face to show to the frustrated Russian people.
On how the second "generation" of the oligarchy came to prominence through appeasement by Putin:
With no free media, no justice system to worry about, and no competition, Putin’s preferred oligarchs were like vermin whose natural predators had been eradicated. The chosen winners had the full power of the state behind them and the Russian treasury opened wide.

2018/09/09

Sunday in the dog park

This morning in the dog park I learned it is possible to sneak up on a jackrabbit. (It would have been great if I'd known I was doing so...) When you do, it may rear up like a stallion and bound away, not like a hare, but like a gazelle.

2018/08/23

Scheduling Notebooks at Netflix – Netflix Technology Blog – Medium

Scheduling Notebooks at Netflix – Netflix Technology Blog – Medium:

Notebooks are, in essence, managed JSON documents with a simple interface to execute code within. They’re good at expressing iterative units of work via cells, which facilitate reporting and execution isolation with ease. Plus, with different kernels, notebooks can support a wide range of languages and execution patterns. These attributes mean that we can expose any arbitrary level of complexity for advanced users while presenting a more easily followed narrative for consumers — all within a single document.
Since Papermill doesn’t modify the source notebook, we get a functional property added to our definition of work — something which is normally missing in the notebook space. Our inputs, a notebook JSON document and our input parameters, are treated as immutable records for execution that produce an immutable output document.

2018/07/16

We just watched a U.S. president acting on behalf of a hostile power - The Washington Post

Max Boot lays it out.

We just watched a U.S. president acting on behalf of a hostile power - The Washington Post: "We are past the point when such statements can be dismissed as naivete — especially when Trump has previously admitted that Russia did hack the election. We are past the point where Trump’s conduct can be ascribed to his belief that it is imperative to improve U.S.-Russia relations. If Trump doesn’t care about the state of U.S.-German relations, U.S.-Canadian relations or U.S.-U.K. relations — all of which he has damaged in the past month — why would he care about U.S. relations with a country that has one-fourteenth of America’s GDP and one-tenth of its defense budget? We are past the point where Trump’s conduct can be ascribed to his general sympathy for dictators. If he is waging a trade war on China’s dictator, why is he cozying up to Russia’s dictator? We are past the point when Trump’s conduct — which leaves future elections wide open to Russian manipulation — can be ascribed to his unwillingness to do anything that will tarnish his glorious victory. It is true but insufficient to point out that that Trump’s unwillingness to acknowledge the Russian attack on America is putting his own interests above the country’s. Even if Trump were thinking only in terms of his own political survival — his usual mode — he would be tougher on Putin, because he must realize that kowtowing to the Russian only strengthens suspicions of collusion. But Trump just cannot bring himself to do it. Is that because he hopes for more aid from Putin in the future — or because he is afraid of what Putin can reveal about him? Either way, he gives every impression of betraying his oath of office. U.S. Constitution, Article III, Section 3: ‘Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying war against them, or in adhering to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort.’ Trump’s own national security adviser said the Russian election attack constituted an ‘act of war.’ So what does that make his boss? Some — including former CIA director John Brennan — now dare call it treason. That conclusion was once unthinkable. No longer."

2018/07/09

Extreme Heat Event in Northern Siberia and the coastal Arctic Ocean This Week – Ocean's Wrath

Extreme Heat Event in Northern Siberia and the coastal Arctic Ocean This Week – Ocean's Wrath:

An extreme heat event for this particular region…with high temperatures of greater than 40 degrees F (greater than 20 C) above recent normals…will impact the coast of the Arctic Ocean (specifically the Laptev Sea and Eastern Siberian Sea) Wednesday-Friday. This will generate maximum daily temperatures as high as 90-95 degrees (32-35 C) near the open ocean coast! Yes,  you read that correctly.
Meanwhile we continue extracting and leaking methane into the atmosphere. We continue generating and releasing CO2 at a high rate. Here in the United States, when we could be choosing representatives who have even slight interest in this problem, we are busy voting for the end of democracy. I marvel at our stupidity.

2018/04/18

"Be a Good Ancestor"

China made solar panels cheap. Now it’s doing the same for electric buses. - Vox:

The rapidly growing megacity of Shenzhen, China, was choked with diesel pollution in the early 2010s. Though buses were just 0.5 percent of the city’s vehicles, they were responsible for 20 percent of the air pollution. So, as the World Resources Institute recounts, Shenzhen electrified them. All 16,359 of them.
It got there through some cleverness — they planned out charging infrastructure and pushed manufacturers to offer lifetime warranties on batteries — but mainly through government subsidies, which covered up to half the upfront cost of the vehicles.
In 2013, China was bopping along with 1,700 BEBs. ...it realized that its rapidly expanding urbanization could not continue to rely on diesel buses, lest it make an already crippling air-pollution problem even worse.
So it decided to make electric buses a thing. How? By dumping a giant pile of money on the problem, subsidizing the purchase of more than 350,000 BEBs in the following four years.
Other cities are beginning to get on the BEB bandwagon as well.
[BNEF writes that] “Paris aims to electrify all of its 4,500 buses by 2025, Copenhagen has committed to procure only zero-emission buses from 2019, and Los Angeles has the same target for its fleet of 2,200 buses by 2030.”
sometimes problems are big and urgent, you need scaled-up solutions quickly, and you just don’t have time to mess around. China didn’t nudge its solar industry, it kicked it in the pants. Now it’s doing the same to the BEB industry.
As economists will rush to point out, there have been enormous inefficiencies and waste along the way, money lost on graft or junk technology. Solar has often been poorly installed or curtailed. According to BNEF, some 43 percent of the BEBs allegedly produced in China in 2015 were basically fraudulent.
[China] rightly recognized that the problems (coal and diesel pollution) are intensely urgent and it’s not that huge a mystery how to solve them.
Amortized over the next 50 to 100 years, the next several generations of humanity, the cost of transition are a screaming deal at almost any price. It’s just a matter of learning (or perhaps relearning) to take a long-term view of human interests — to be a “good ancestor,” as they say.

2018/04/15

Installing Ubuntu 17.10 on a 2013 13" MacBook Air: Wifi

Today I am remembering why I decided to give Mac OS X a try back in 2002: I got tired of spending most of my time configuring linux drivers. I thought the situation might have improved in the interim, and it probably has. Unfortunately, the universe of extant hardware is huge, and it's hard to fill all of the holes. Anyway, today I'm trying to replace macOS with Ubuntu 17.10 on my 2013 13" MacBook Air. Most of the installation has gone smoothly, with the main exception being Wifi. After more than an hour of flailing I found this, and it appears to have worked:

BCM43142 WiFi driver in Ubuntu. | How to install BCM43142 WiFi Driver in Linux

I had to copy a lot of packages from the Ubuntu installer thumb drive, not just the two mentioned in the article. The reason was that the Ubuntu installer didn't install gcc 7 or its supporting packages. Here are the packages that I needed to copy from the installer thumb drive. All files were located under .../pool/main:
  • bcmwl-kernel-source_6.30.223.271+bdcom-0ubuntu3_amd64.deb
  • dkms_2.3-3ubuntu3_all.deb
  • gcc_7.2.0-1ubuntu1_amd64.deb
  • gcc-7_7.2.0-8ubuntu3_amd64.deb
  • libasan4_7.2.0-8ubuntu3_amd64.deb
  • libatomic1_7.2.0-8ubuntu3_amd64.deb
  • libc6-dev_2.26-0ubuntu2_amd64.deb
  • libc-dev-bin_2.26-0ubuntu2_amd64.deb
  • libcilkrts5_7.2.0-8ubuntu3_amd64.deb
  • libgcc-7-dev_7.2.0-8ubuntu3_amd64.deb
  • libitm1_7.2.0-8ubuntu3_amd64.deb
  • liblsan0_7.2.0-8ubuntu3_amd64.deb
  • libmpx2_7.2.0-8ubuntu3_amd64.deb
  • libquadmath0_7.2.0-8ubuntu3_amd64.deb
  • libtsan0_7.2.0-8ubuntu3_amd64.deb
  • libubsan0_7.2.0-8ubuntu3_amd64.deb
  • linux-libc-dev_4.13.0-16.19_amd64.deb
  • make_4.1-9.1_amd64.deb

2018/01/21

Trump’s invincible ignorance

Last Week Was a Degrading Embarrassment. And a Microcosm of Trump. – Foreign Policy: Does Donald Trump engage in some secret ritual involving the mass ingestion of bullshit? How else does he manage to spew out so much?

Almost everything else about that tweet is also false: The decision to sell the old U.S. Embassy was made by former President George W. Bush, not former President Barack Obama, and it was done for security reasons. The new embassy, built at a cost of $1 billion, not $1.2 billion, has been described by Trump’s own ambassador to the Court of St. James’s as a “bargain” that was paid for by the sale of other U.S. properties in London.
...in fact there is a big price to be paid for having a president whom no one can trust. It makes it almost impossible, for example, to convince other countries to go along with the United States in any international crisis where the facts are in dispute.
“See, that’s treason right there,” he said. No it’s not — unless treason is redefined to mean, as it does in places like Turkey and Russia, any criticism of the supreme leader.

2018/01/17

What Makes the Hardest Equations in Physics So Difficult? | Quanta Magazine

What Makes the Hardest Equations in Physics So Difficult? | Quanta Magazine:

When you start modeling a flow using Navier-Stokes, your fluid will have some initial amount of energy. But in a turbulent flow, that energy can get concentrated. Instead of being distributed evenly across the river, kinetic energy may gather in arbitrarily small eddies, and particles in those eddies could (theoretically) be accelerated to infinite velocity.
... turbulence is meant to describe exactly this — the transfer of kinetic energy from large to smaller and smaller scales...

2018/01/16

Why Raspberry Pi isn't vulnerable to Spectre or Meltdown - Raspberry Pi

Eben Upton provides a wonderfully clear explanation of recently-disclosed CPU vulnerabilities: Why Raspberry Pi isn't vulnerable to Spectre or Meltdown - Raspberry Pi. I think this is the clearest writing on CPU architecture details that I've seen, aside from articles in BYTE magazine in the early 1980s. The comment thread is also a fun read, not least for its mention of the Motorola 68000.

2018/01/03

Ptolemy, Kepler and Fourier walk into a used bookstore...

In which I learn a little modern JavaScript and bemoan my lousy memory: Epicycles Ever After

2017/12/21

Sarah Kendzior on Twitter summarizes Sen. Warner's Red line

Sarah Kendzior:

All Dems and GOP must unambiguously say that any effort to shut down Mueller probe would be a gross abuse of power. This is a red line.
Many of the same people attacking Mueller's appointment today praised him months ago.
Our intel committee uncovered numerous, troubling high-level engagements between the Trump campaign and Russian affiliates.
The national security threat we face demands we rise above partisan differences. We should all want to know the truth about what happened in the election, and know it as quickly as possible
POTUS's track record is a source of concern. Most people thought he wouldn't fire Comey and he did. Firing Mueller would cause a constitutional crisis.
I had hoped I'd never have to make these speech, but these are troubling times. We must all speak up -- before it's too late.
Sen Warner's speech on the Mueller probe felt more like a warning to the US public than to Trump: brace yourself for a crisis even worse than our current one, and don't fall for spin

EPA says Superfund Task Force left no records

Blessed are the scum, for they shall envelop the earth. Scott Pruitt's secretive, unaccountable EPA is re-defining what it means to be a public servant. EPA says Superfund Task Force left no records | News | santafenewmexican.com:

The task force in June issued a nearly three dozen-page report containing 42 detailed recommendations, all of which Pruitt immediately adopted. The advocacy group Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility, known as PEER, quickly filed a Freedom of Information Act request seeking a long list of documents related to the development of Pruitt’s plan.
“Task force members were all volunteers from EPA staff with no selection criteria,” Johnny Walker, a Justice Department lawyer representing EPA, wrote to PEER last month. “The Task Force recommendations were intended to provide guidance to EPA staff. As such, there was no plan for public review and comment on the recommendations.”
The task force was led by Albert “Kell” Kelly, whom Pruitt hired at EPA as a senior adviser at an annual salary of $172,100. Kelly was previously the chairman of Tulsa-based SpiritBank, where he worked as an executive for 34 years.
The Associated Press reported in August that Kelly was barred by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation from working for any U.S. financial institution after officials determined he violated laws or regulations, leading to a financial loss for his bank.

2017/12/07

U.S. Sen. Martin Heinrich: Why hinder a rapidly growing industry?

Why hinder a rapidly growing industry? | Albuquerque Journal:

Only a little more than 1 percent of the hundreds of thousands of American solar workers manufacture solar panels or modules. Even within solar manufacturing as a whole, approximately 20 times more American workers work for companies like New Mexico’s Unirac that manufacture other equipment used to produce solar power. Those companies have warned that they may have to lay off employees if the United States imposes costly tariffs or quotas on imported panels.

2017/12/03

I’m on Trump’s voter fraud commission. I’m suing it to find out what it’s doing. - The Washington Post

I’m on Trump’s voter fraud commission. I’m suing it to find out what it’s doing. - The Washington Post:

Instead, the commission is cloaking itself in secrecy, completely contrary to federal law. Recommendations for changes in public policy — whether you agree with them or not — ought to come through an open, public discussion where any American can weigh in.
the memo wasn’t written by staff — it was written by individuals who were later named to the commission but who were working outside of government at the time. The letter went out immediately after our first conference call, indicating that Kobach’s data-gathering effort was underway before the commission formed. But no one told members of the commission that; I learned about it from the press.
Strangely, [Kobach's] charges had less to do with how voters in New Hampshire had conducted themselves than with the structure of the state’s election laws, which Kobach apparently dislikes.
The commission was established by executive order under the auspices of the Federal Advisory Commission Act (FACA), which requires notice of our public meetings, disclosure of our work product and the opportunity for public participation. FACA was written precisely so Americans would know what the government is doing and what it is considering, so we could participate in that process.
Without transparency about the commission’s actions, how can you find out if a policy is being developed that may require you to have a Real ID-compliant driver’s license to vote? Or whether you’ll have to prove American citizenship at the polls? How will you know about proposed changes to voter registration deadlines or new restrictions on absentee balloting?
Of course, this is politics. But remember, we as American citizens are supposed to own the process.

2017/11/26

Gutting net neutrality is a death knell for the resistance - The Globe and Mail

Gutting net neutrality is a death knell for the resistance - The Globe and Mail:

Gutting net neutrality is one of the most unpopular proposals the Republicans have made this year, along with Trumpcare and the proposed tax hike for all but the wealthiest Americans. Normally, there would be risk in proposing such widely loathed policies, but the GOP appears unconcerned with public approval – a strong indicator to me that the elections are indeed a fait accompli.
What can we Americans do? Talk about it – while we still can. Call our representatives, organize in our community, and have a plan for what we'll do should these repressive initiatives pass. Over the past year, citizens have had success exerting public pressure on officials and raising consciousness over social issues. The internet was key to these endeavours, which is precisely why the administration wants to eliminate equal access to it. If we, as Americans, want to retain our voice, we must speak up now, or forever, involuntarily, hold our peace.

2017/11/19

Shaping the World | David R. MacIver

Shaping the World | David R. MacIver

This keynote speech from PyCon UK is about software, a little. But it's more about societies and other complex systems, and the consequences that arise from our simplified models of them. It is full of wonderful associations.

It's pretty amazing that Mr. MacIver was able to speak so evocatively, especially after having had his memory wiped by the sight of 800 or so audience members.

I wish the read-write web actually existed. I would love to be able to annotate his transcript directly. Instead I'll quote, and note, here.

Models of Trees

If you’re a computer scientist, or have had an unfortunate developer job interview recently, a tree is probably something like this.
Hello, Google ;)
[A real, biological tree] provides shade, maybe fruit, it has a complex root system. It’s the center of its own little ecosystem, providing shelter and food for birds, insects, and other animals.

"Complex root system" reminds me of what has recently been written about how tree root systems communicate and share nutrients with other trees. It also reminds of the relationship between root systems and fungal meshes (a mushroom is to the whole fungus as the tip of the iceberg is to the submerged mass), which dissolve rock to serve as nutrients to plants in exchange for carbohydrates (?) from the plant.

And of course it reminds me of Aldo Leopold's story of an atom: the "Odyssey" chapter from "A Sand County Almanac", written in a time when it was believed that plants disintegrated rocks solely by driving roots into them like wedges.

Back to the keynote:

The problem that the German scientific foresters ran into is that complex, natural, systems are often robust in ways that simple, optimised systems are not. They’ve evolved over time, with lots of fiddly little details that have occurred locally to adapt to and patch over problems. Much of that illegibility turns out not to be accidental complexity, but instead the adaptation that was required to make the system work at all.
I've spent much of the past year updating a build system that generates Makefiles from Visual Studio solution/project files. This is a lovely description of that system.

Taxes and Their Avoidance

A picture of a building with multiple windows bricked up.
Have you seen these? Do you know why there are these bricked up windows? Well, it’s because of window taxes... So this is where windows taxes come from – take complex, messy, realities of wealth and pick a simple proxy for it... and you end up taxing the number of windows. Of course what happens is that people brick up their windows to save on taxes. And then suffer health problems...

I was surprised that this was an English building. For me, bricked-over windows and doors evoke Russia, Peter the Great, and the war of countermeasures between tax collectors and peasants.

From "Peter the Great", by Robert Massie:
"The only solution [to Peter's constant need for funds...] was to lay still heavier taxes on the burdened nation... the basic tax had been the old household tax, determined by a census... This tax... made for crowded living because, to avoid taxation, as many families and people as possible crowded under one roof."
"But the new low figures also represented the helplessness of the government to overcome the stratagems of both nobility and peasants who were determined to evade taxes... Russian peasant houses were largely made of logs or timbers notched at four corners. Thus, they could be un-notched in a few hours and either removed to the forest or scattered about. The census takers and tax collectors knew the trick, but there was little they could do about it."
From "For Good and Evil: The Impact of Taxes on the Course of Civilization", by Charles Adams:
"Duplexes and triplexes were built to take advantage of the one-dwelling, one-tax loophole. The tsar's tax collector responded by considering each outside door as a separate household. Peasants responded by boarding up one of the doors..."
But to return to the keynote:
These complex shared ownerships are illegible, so we force people to conform instead to the legible idea of single people or families owning each piece of land. This is where a lot of modern notions of ownership come from by the way – the state created them so they could collect more tax.
...
And of course we have the soviet union’s program of farm collectivization, which has the state pushing things in entirely the opposite direction.
This reminds that I want to read Anne Applebaum's new book, "Red Famine: Stalin's War on Ukraine", which details the use of collective farming as a tool of mass murder.

Legibility, and the Choice of Model Parameters

After all of these interesting anecdotes rich with association, Mr. MacIver moves to his main point, which is that the attempts of tech companies to be disruptive, or to improve efficiency, can be boiled down to attempts to improve legibility. They aren't removing cruft: they're building new models of complex systems. They're choosing principal components – sets of parameters – that make it easier to understand the properties they want to optimize.

That model building produces lots of unintended – often bad – consequences.

... we’ve reduced the world to the small subset of it that we think of as the important bits, and discarded the old, illegible, reality as unimportant...
that legibility we impose often maps very badly to the actual complexity of the world. You only have to look at the endless stream of falsehoods programmers believe [in order] to get a sense of how much of the world’s complexity we’re ignoring.
Mr. MacIver next explains soft power, and in particular the soft power of disruptive technology companies. I took his words as an oblique reference to Amazon's business model, and free two-day shipping, but Mr. MacIver explicitly referenced other companies such as Twitter and Uber:
... soft power is power that you derive instead from appeal – People want to do what you want. There are a variety of routes to soft power, but there’s one that has been particularly effective for colonising forces, the early state, and software companies. It goes like this.
First you make them want what you have, then you make them need it.
The trick is to to basically ease people in – you give them a hook that makes your stuff appealing, and then once they’re used to it they can’t do without...
Pity they’re going to hike the prices way up when they’ve driven the competition into the ground and want to stop hemorrhaging money.
Sometimes it turns out that what we were disrupting was our life support system.

Admonitions

Mr. MacIver ends with some advice.

First he reminds the partisans of the old Mac / Windows wars that they both have it wrong, and that Richard Stallman's painful prescription is probably, by far, the best.

Then he advises that anyone who wants to develop a new, disruptive technology (and who is not cynically trying to control some large portion of society/industry, as I believe Mr. Bezos and others are) should begin with user research. "If you’re going to be forming a simplified model of the world, at least base it on what’s important to the people who are going to be using your software."

Finally, he practically begs us all to stop relying on ads. You should read his advice for yourself.

Thanks, Mr. MacGiver, for such a wonderful and thoughtful talk.

2017/10/17

The Founding Fathers designed impeachment for someone exactly like Donald Trump - The Washington Post

The Founding Fathers designed impeachment for someone exactly like Donald Trump - The Washington Post: in which Barbara Radnofsky lays out the many causes for which a properly functioning Congress would already have impeached Donald J. Trump.

Scores decry new science standards | Northern New Mexico Education | santafenewmexican.com

Scores decry new science standards | Northern New Mexico Education | santafenewmexican.com:

More than 200 people showed up at the Public Education Department on Monday to voice opposition to the New Mexico STEM-Ready Standards, due to go into effect for state schools in July 2018...
By midafternoon, not one person spoke in favor of adopting the standards.

Want to deepen our democracy? Get ready. - The Washington Post

Want to deepen our democracy? Get ready. - The Washington Post:

The time has come to make our democracy democratic again. And now, no one can say that we lack ideas for how to do it.

2017/09/25

Nuclear Experts Head to China to Test Experimental Reactors - Bloomberg

Nuclear Experts Head to China to Test Experimental Reactors - Bloomberg:

“China by a very large margin is the largest market in the world for new power plants of any type,” said Charles W. Forsberg, a professor at MIT. “If we do not get our act together, the low-carbon energy business will be owned by the Chinese.”
Yup.

2017/09/09

The First White President

There is a lot to consider in this, by Ta-Nehisi Coates. Lest I create the false impression of a disjointed argument, please note that these are just a few bones taken from a beautifully articulated skeleton. The First White President:

After his cabal of conspiracy theorists forced Barack Obama to present his birth certificate, Trump demanded the president’s college grades (offering $5 million in exchange for them), insisting that Obama was not intelligent enough to have gone to an Ivy League school, and that his acclaimed memoir, Dreams From My Father, had been ghostwritten by a white man, Bill Ayers.
Asserting that Trump’s rise was primarily powered by cultural resentment and economic reversal has become de rigeur among white pundits and thought leaders. But evidence for this is, at best, mixed.
Trump’s white support was not determined by income... Trump’s dominance among whites across class lines is of a piece with his larger dominance across nearly [emph. added] every white demographic. Trump won white women (+9) and white men (+31).
And so an opioid epidemic among mostly white people is greeted with calls for compassion and treatment, as all epidemics should be, while a crack epidemic among mostly black people is greeted with scorn and mandatory minimums.
Firsthand reports by white Union soldiers who witnessed actual slavery during the Civil War rendered the “white slavery” argument ridiculous. But its operating premises—white labor as noble archetype, and black labor as something else—lived on.
“A new voice” was beginning to make itself felt in the country. “It is a voice that has been silent too long,” Nixon claimed, alluding to working-class whites. “It is a voice of people who have not taken to the streets before, who have not indulged in violence, who have not broken the law.”
It had been only 18 years since the Cicero riots; eight years since Daisy and Bill Myers had been run out of Levittown, Pennsylvania; three years since Martin Luther King Jr. had been stoned while walking through Chicago’s Marquette Park. But as the myth of the virtuous white working class was made central to American identity, its sins needed to be rendered invisible.
I suspect all of the above is just background, to enable the reader to see in a new light the material to come: I've just reached the point where Mr. Coates begins recounting statements of the (all-white) Democratic candidates in the 2016 Presidential election. Recommended reading.

2017/08/27

Joe Biden lays it down

'We Are Living Through a Battle for the Soul of This Nation'

Today we have an American president who has publicly proclaimed a moral equivalency between neo-Nazis and Klansmen and those who would oppose their venom and hate.
You, [I], and the citizens of this country carry a special burden in 2017. We have to do what our president has not. We have to uphold America’s values. We have to do what he will not. We have to defend our Constitution. We have to remember our kids are watching. We have to show the world America is still a beacon of light.
+1

2017/08/26

"I am The Law." The Law is an ass

Laurence Tribe on Twitter:

T just sent lots of messages: to F & M, to Mueller, to all POC & LGBTQ, to GOP, to Pentagon all Americans: I AM THE LAW. Get used to it.
Retweeting Beau Willimon:
It was a message - on the same day that Mueller's grand jury issued subpoenas for Flynn & Manafort - that they should hold the line...

2017/08/18

Beware: Trump may use the alt-right to turn himself into the center - The Washington Post

Beware: Trump may use the alt-right to turn himself into the center - The Washington Post:

Remember, along with group violence, individual acts are very useful to Trump: He can “crack down” on the violence, he can call for more police, he can present himself as the candidate of law and order. The more chaos, the stronger he will seem.
Now that Jobbik is Hungary’s second-largest political party, Fidesz positions itself as the center. Here’s the paradox: “Vote for us or else you get the far-right” is an argument that the farthest-right ruling party in Europe uses to win elections.

2017/08/15

Building America’s Trust Act would amp up privacy concerns at the border | Ars Technica

We will protect your civil liberties by curtailing them. Building America’s Trust Act would amp up privacy concerns at the border | Ars Technica:

"This is a surveillance bill in pretty weak disguise. And it won't be limited to immigrants," Alvaro Bedoya, a law professor at Georgetown University, told Ars. "It would pave the way for more face scans of American citizens at airports. It would aggressively deploy drones at the 'border,' but [it] doesn't mention that DHS interprets its authority to operate at the 'border' to extend to any area within 100 miles of the actual legal border."

In 1939, I didn’t hear war coming. Now its thundering approach can’t be ignored

This is just one arresting statement from a worrying essay. Harry Leslie Smith | Opinion | The Guardian:

It is as foolish for Americans to believe that their generals will save them from Trump as it was for liberal Germans to believe the military would protect the nation from Hitler’s excesses.

2017/07/26

When the White House Lies About You - The New York Times

When the White House Lies About You - The New York Times:

[Using a general to demonize the press] raises the question of whether normally apolitical figures aren’t being conscripted into Trump’s war on the press. That’s a worrying thought for institutions, like the C.I.A., that are supposed to remain above the fray to preserve public trust.
This does raise the question of whether the WH is planting disinformation with outsiders in hopes they will find it outrageous enough to propagate it. You know, dezinformatsiya.

2017/07/08

A Wisconsin Republican Looks Back With Regret at Voter ID and Redistricting Fights - ProPublica

ProPublica interviews a retired state senator who speaks with candor, and who describes collecting evidence and then using it to guide his decisions. That was refreshing.

Internal memo reveals ICE officers have free rein to detain any undocumented immigrant

Internal memo reveals ICE officers have free rein to detain any undocumented immigrant:

Under Obama, who earned the title of “deporter-in-chief” from immigration activists for the record number of deportations that took place under his administration, the majority of the detained undocumented population either had criminal histories or fell into a category where they could be considered a threat to public safety or national security.
“When you use the word ‘will’ instead of ‘may’ you are taking it a step further,” Saldaña told Propublica. “This is an important directive and people at ERO are bound by this directive unless someone above Matt Albence comes back and says, ‘You went too far.’ I don’t think you are going to find that person in this administration,” Saldaña added.

2017/06/29

Republicans are risking becoming the party of Putin - The Washington Post

Republicans are risking becoming the party of Putin - The Washington Post:

Increasingly sophisticated Russian influence and cyberoperations threaten Americans’ ability to choose their own leaders. This isn’t hyperbole; in fact, it’s hard to overstate just how serious this issue is. Yet President Trump continues to sow doubt about whether Moscow even interfered in the 2016 presidential elections and to suggest the question’s insignificance by ignoring it all together.
Worse, Trump appears to have some support in this from Republican leaders in the House. Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) and Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) have delayed the bill, citing the constitutional requirement that such bills originate in the House.
This is little more than a red herring. Nothing prevents them from inserting the text of the Senate bill into a House measure, passing it and sending it back to the Senate for final approval, which it would likely grant under expedited procedures. Instead, Ryan and McCarthy appear to be more interested in delaying and weakening the bill.
I've voted for Republicans in the past. This bunch cares too much about power, and too little about anything else. They're selling out the country.

Health and diet and (multi-)multimodal distributions

I knew it! 😁 The Effects of White vs. Whole-wheat Bread May Vary Greatly Between Individuals | Big Think:

...the glycemic response to each type of bread and the way it was metabolized was person-specific and could be predicted solely based on the microbiome makeup of that person, collected prior to the study. The microbiome itself was resilient to the intervention and did not change in individuals as a result of the study.  The findings suggest that making blanket statements about a particular type of diet may not be appropriate and understanding dietary effects requires taking into account person-specific factors.

2017/05/12

Opportunity Lost?

Since Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990 I've been wondering why the U.S. has ignored opportunities to develop technologies - for improved energy efficiency and alternative energy – that would have such an obviously large market around the world. Talk about lost opportunities: Three Reasons to Believe in China's Renewable Energy Boom:

"It’s not just pollution that’s driving the determined focus on renewable power. Leaders have made clear that they view clean energy as a powerful engine for job creation."
"“It’s about setting up for manufacturing dominance,” Liu says. “China sees green energy as an opportunity where it can become a manufacturing monster the way it has in clothes and toys.”"
Edit: forgot to add the counterpoint. Rick Perry is a bright spot in a very dismal, autocratic administration. (The following are mostly quotes of quotes.)
"Although EPA Chief Scott Pruitt seems more than happy to blow up his own agency, Perry has gone in the opposite direction. The Energy Department has been cheerleading non-stop for renewables and clean tech with a flood of press releases, and Perry has backed that up with missives from his own @SecretaryPerry Twitter account."
"More than 133,000 energy efficiency jobs were added in 2016, bringing the total number of Americans working in the sector to 2.2 million people. More than half of those jobs (1.4 million) are in the construction industry alone."
"More than a quarter of the energy efficiency workforce (552,000 workers) is related to efficient appliances, including high efficiency heating and cooling equipment. That’s a 58% increase from 2015."
"DOE-backed research in solid-state lighting has yielded more than 260 patents and a significant industry footprint, with literally millions of products currently on the market based, at least in part, on these technical advancements. These products are estimated to have contributed to more than $2.8 billion in savings for consumers and businesses – an impressive return on an investment of about $350 million."

The Economist examines another Authoritarian Govt

Why is Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro still in power?

"NICOLÁS MADURO, Venezuela’s president, is deeply unpopular. Four out of five Venezuelans think his government is doing a bad job."
"Mr Maduro has his predecessor to thank for his survival. During his 14-year presidency, Hugo Chávez systematically weakened all the main institutions in the country, stacking everything in the ruling party’s favour, and ensuring opposition-led change would be challenging or impossible."
This is relevant to the U.S. situation, given the time remaining to the midterm elections:
"Only one institution remains independent, and that is the national assembly. It became opposition-controlled after a massive swing vote in December 2015. But that has not really mattered to Mr Maduro. He can instruct his compliant supreme court to overrule the assembly as required."
Also relevant:
"The opposition has come to the conclusion that its only viable option is to take to the streets. It hopes mass protests will demonstrate who really holds majority power in Venezuela, and prompt serious concessions from the government, or even some sort of uprising. But Mr Maduro holds a trump card: the army. The supposedly neutral but heavily politicised institution is semi-embedded in Venezuela’s political structure. Officers or former officers run 11 of the government’s 32 ministries."

Trump Is Trying to Control the FBI. It's Time to Freak Out.

Trump Is Trying to Control the FBI. It's Time to Freak Out.:

"If the FBI is operating out of loyalty to the president, then one of the most important barriers between a democratic government and an authoritarian one has fallen."

Anne Applebaum - Don't forget those smiling images of Trump and the Russians - The Washington Post

Don't forget those smiling images of Trump and the Russians - The Washington Post:

"Nor are any of them much interested in the fate of Dan Heyman, the West Virginia reporter arrested recently for persistent questioning of Tom Price, the health and human services secretary. Due process, rule of law, all of the dull rules and procedures that deliver justice are uninteresting to men who believe in personalized power unconstrained by traditions, institutions or constitutions. Look at how pleased they were to see one another – and compare those pictures with Trump's stiff and awkward news conferences with democratic leaders such as Germany's Angela Merkel or Britain's Theresa May."

Garry Kasparov on Trump's authoritarian instinct - NY Daily News

Garry Kasparov on Trump's authoritarian instinct - NY Daily News: Summary paragraph:

"If the rule of law and the separation of powers are to mean anything in the U.S., an independent investigation into Trump’s Russia ties and his finances is more critical now than ever. It won’t be easy, but it’s only going to get harder. Trump will keep finding new ways to accrue power — and he won’t care at all how bad it looks."
The whole article is worth reading. I'll refrain from quoting it in its entirety.
"It's a simple formula: Always take whatever power is available. And don't worry about how it looks, because if you accumulate enough power quickly enough, appearances can't hurt you."
"“We’re in uncharted territory.” But this territory has been very well charted — in Russia, Turkey, Venezuela and in many other democracies that turned toward despotism. We watched Vladimir Putin navigate from the same map in Russia as he systematically destroyed every check on his power."
"Trump is surrounding himself with loyalists and family members, and dismissing anyone he thinks might be a threat to him."
"As if to emphasize how little he cares about optics, Trump followed up the Comey firing by meeting with the Russian foreign minister and ambassador at the White House the very next day."
"Trump would love to turn the FBI into a personal security and intelligence force to use against his enemies, the way Putin uses the FSB in Russia and abroad."

2017/05/11

Only I can...

It may not be obvious why anyone would worry about how much power Trump can hold in his hands. Vox again: Experts on authoritarianism are absolutely terrified by the Comey firing - Vox:

"It's not that the elected leaders in these countries set out to become an authoritarian, per se. It's that they care about their own power and security above all else, and do things to protect their own position that have the effect of removing democratic constraints on their power."

Who holds the cards?

This Vox explainer implies an imbalance of power, given the current distribution of parties in executive and legislative branches. Special prosecutor: can bring charges. Can be fired by (deputy) A.G., therefore subject to executive pressure. Independent commission: can publish findings. Cannot bring charges. Must be created by legislation, therefore can be vetoed by President. Special committee: can focus on assigned subject of investigation. Can publish findings. Cannot bring charges. Recent instances have produced unsatisfactory results.

2017/05/10

"This Is Not a Drill"

This Is Not a Drill David Frum, 9 May, in The Atlantic:

"He could well resent the search for truth, even without being particularly guilty of anything heinously bad. But we all now must take seriously the heightened possibility of guilt, either personal or on the part of people near him—and of guilt of some of the very worst imaginable crimes in the political lexicon."
"The question has to be asked searchingly of the Republican members of Congress: Will you allow a president of your party to attack the integrity of the FBI? You impeached Bill Clinton for lying about sex. Will you now condone and protect a Republican administration lying about espionage?"
"The question has to be asked of all the rest of us: Perhaps the worst fears for the integrity of the U.S. government and U.S. institutions are being fulfilled. If this firing stands—and if Trump dares to announce a pliable replacement—the rule of law begins to shake and break. The law will answer to the president, not the president to the law."
Twitter weighs in:

The Comey debacle calls to mind a paragraph from 'On Tyranny.' Democracy is rarely stolen, but given away in a democratic process. Chilling.

Snyder, Timothy. On Tyranny: Twenty Lessons from the Twentieth Century (Kindle Locations 172-177). Crown/Archetype. Kindle Edition.
"Some of the Germans who voted for the Nazi Party in 1932 no doubt understood that this might be the last meaningfully free election for some time, but most did not. Some of the Czechs and Slovaks who voted for the Czechoslovak Communist Party in 1946 probably realized that they were voting for the end of democracy, but most assumed they would have another chance. No doubt the Russians who voted in 1990 did not think that this would be the last free and fair election in their country’s history, which (thus far) it has been. Any election can be the last, or at least the last in the lifetime of the person casting the vote."
— beth can't with this (@bourgeoisalien) May 10, 2017

"no longer any serious possibility that he will respect the norms of conduct ... only questions are how far his fellow Rs...will let him go" https://t.co/dmOHUI3BqD

— Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan) May 10, 2017

Among the amazing things in this story [Politico: Behind Comey’s firing: An enraged Trump, fuming about Russia].
  1. Trump thought firing Comey would help him control the Russia investigation.
  2. Trump was angry that Comey would not support his claims that Obama bugged him.
  3. The fallout from the firing took WH by surprise. It had no communication strategy.
  4. "Trump had talked about the firing for over a week, and the letters were written to give him rationale to fire Comey."
— Jack Goldsmith (@jacklgoldsmith) May 10, 2017

Sleight of Mouth

In recent days I realized I've been thrown off-track by DJT's wording.

The DoJ and Congressional committees are investigating possible financial ties between Trump and Russia. To this, Trump says (paraphrasing), "I don't have any investments in Russia!"

Eric Trump has said, "We have all the funding we need from Russia." The younger Trump reminds that "financial ties" encompasses not just investments by Trump, but also investments in Trump - among other things.