2009/04/30

“It's Good Weather for a Race”

Couldn't help thinking of Dian Chapman when I read this:

“It's Good Weather for a Race”:

"because when it comes to their service and sacrifice, warm words and gestures are more than warranted, but they're not nearly enough."

Technology Review: Swine Flu Genome Hints at Milder Virus

People exposed to the 1957 flu pandemic may have some immunity to the current H1N1.

Technology Review: Blogs: TR Editors' blog: Swine Flu Genome Hints at Milder Virus:

"Ralph Tripp, an influenza expert at the University of Georgia, said that his early analysis of the virus' protein-making instructions suggested that people exposed to the 1957 flu pandemic--which killed up to 2 million people worldwide--may have some immunity to the new strain. That could explain why older people have been spared in Mexico, where the swine flu has been most deadly."


Secrets of the Dead: Killer Flu suggested that the distribution of deaths by age in the 1918 pandemic hinted at a prior outbreak, about fifty years earlier.

2009/04/28

Swine Flu Genes From Pigs Only, Not Humans or Birds | Wired Science

Swine Flu Genes From Pigs Only, Not Humans or Birds | Wired Science:

"‘The new neuraminidase gene that came in from Eurasian swine is one we’ve never before seen circulating in humans,’ said Rambaut. ‘That’s one of the reasons it’s spreading rapidly. Very few people will have any immunity to this particular combination, which is what gives the concern that this will be a pandemic rather than just a normal seasonal flu outbreak. It remains to be seen how much and to what extent there is existing immunity.’"


Update 2009/04/30: The following article is more recent than the one above, but is it based on the "earlier reports" mentioned in the Wired article?

Technology Review: Hunting for Clues in the Swine Flu Genetic Code:
"The new swine flu virus appears to have done more swapping than usual, with genetic segments from four different sources: North American swine influenza viruses, North American avian influenza viruses, one gene segment from a human influenza virus, and two gene segments that are normally found in swine influenza viruses in Asia and in Europe.
"Parts of it are from the original 1918 virus, parts are similar to the current circulating H1N1 strain from seasonal flu," says Sasisekharan..."

Ford Fusion hybrid hypermiles, goes 1,445 miles on a single tank

Ford finally beat my 1990 Honda CRX :)

Ford Fusion hybrid hypermiles, goes 1,445 miles on a single tank:

" On the 1,445.7-mile trip, the Ford Fusion hybrid was pushed to an average of 81.5 mpg."


For the record, the CRX routinely topped 50 mpg on the interstates around Dayton. Descending out of the San Juans it could top 60 mpg. Two seats. No air conditioning.

So masks *do* work...

An earlier post expressed skepticism about how effectively masks prevent transmission of flu. Now a clinical trial has shown they can prevent transmission of disease from others to the wearer:

Worried about the flu? Get a mask: Scientific American Blog:

"All of the participants were initially healthy but at risk for catching viruses from their children, who had documented cases of respiratory illness. The researchers found that, after a week, the non-mask wearers were four times more likely to catch a variety of viruses, including the common cold and flu, than those who wore them properly (meaning they strapped them on whenever they happened to be in the same room as their sick children). The masks appeared to be equally effective."


If I'm reading correctly, plain old surgical masks were just as effective at preventing transmission as the more expensive P2 masks, which are "specially designed to filter out water droplets containing viruses".

2009/04/25

A few comments on pandemic influenza - fluidinfo

A few comments on pandemic influenza:

"The acting-director of the CDC has already said: "There are things that we see that suggest that containment is not very likely." That is a remarkably candid statement. I think it's very clear that the cat is out of the bag."


via Tim O'Reilly

Influenza Recap

Fear, anger and fatalism over swine flu in Mexico:

"But it may be too late to contain the outbreak, given how widespread the known cases are. If the confirmed deaths are the first signs of a pandemic, then cases are probably incubating around the world by now, said Dr. Michael Osterholm, a pandemic flu expert at the University of Minnesota.
No vaccine specifically protects against swine flu, and it is unclear how much protection current human flu vaccines might offer.

In Mexico City's Zona Rosa neighborhood, teenagers with spiky hair and tight jeans laughed at the danger.
'People are giving too much importance to something that isn't that big of a deal,' said Oscar Zarate, 19, shouting over the loud music and the jostling crowd outside a packed night club."


It will be interesting to see how this develops.

About a year and a half ago I was involved in developing a web application for visualizing results of pandemic simulations. It was intended as a disaster-preparedness application for governments and large (esp. multinational) corporations. The effects of all of the mitigations discussed in the article -- travel restriction, vaccinations, antiviral therapies, etc. -- could be compared in the web app.

Mitigation

I'm a little skeptical of the effectiveness of surgical masks, which seem to be a big feature of the initial response. Are masks really effective at keeping small viruses out of suspension in the atmosphere? The CDC says only that:
"Very little is known about the benefits of wearing facemasks and respirators to help control the spread of pandemic flu."


Recent experiments with guinea pigs showed that coughing and sneezing were not necessary for transmission of flu virus. Instead, atmospheric temperature and humidity determined how well the virus could be suspended in air, which is where it ended up as a result of normal exhalations by the test animals.

Those experiments, incidentally, were inspired by a report of events in southwestern New Mexico:
In an article published in 1919 that details the progression of the 1918 influenza epidemic at Camp Cody, New Mexico, the authors describe a parallel outbreak of pneumonial disease among their laboratory guinea pigs.


"The Great Influenza" gave a good account of the mitigations attempted in 1918 -- including use of surgical masks -- and of their effectiveness. The only thing which really worked then was quarantine. For example, Gunnison County Colorado escaped the 1918 flu with only two deaths, thanks to its stringent quarantine efforts. Silverton lost 10% of its population.


Early Detection

One question which our web application failed to answer was: how do you know when an outbreak is underway, i.e. how do you know when to start mitigation?

It's interesting that Google Flu Trends seems not to have picked up on this outbreak. Granted GFT monitors trends in the United States alone; but the CDC is already aware of cases in California and Texas.

Further Reading -- er, Viewing

PBS has produced some good documentaries on the 1918 flu.

"American Experience: Influenza 1918" (website) focuses on what it was like to live through the pandemic.

Although it's somewhat dated (IIRC it precedes successful recreation of the 1918 virus), "Secrets of the Dead: Killer Flu" (website) is a fascinating detective story about efforts to find the origins, and the keys to the effectiveness, of the 1918 flu.

2009/04/24

A Little Air Pollution Boosts Vegetation’s Carbon Uptake / Science News

A Little Air Pollution Boosts Vegetation’s Carbon Uptake / Science News:

"‘Surprisingly, the effects of atmospheric pollution seem to have enhanced global plant productivity by as much as 25 percent from 1960 to 1999,’ Mercado notes."


(See also the Nova episode on global dimming.)

This begs a rank-amateur question: are plants with needle-shaped leaves adapted for clear atmospheric conditions?

Developing Django apps with zc.buildout

Found this excellent introduction via Looking for quotes about Buildout.

Developing Django apps with zc.buildout:

"...

Finally, Buildout generated a bin/python interpreter."


So buildout makes it easy to create isolated Python environments, just like virtualenv, but perhaps with a different goal: isolated development environments vs. isolated deployment environments? Not sure; gotta read more...

2009/04/21

An Introduction to W3C Widgets

An Introduction to W3C Widgets:

"The king of browser compatibility tables, ppk, recently posted an introduction to W3C Widgets:

"


A new web standard to cover Konfabulator, Dashboard et al?

2009/04/17

Lang.NET 2009 at Ted Leung on the Air

Gratis ago ad Ted Leung for posting his summary of Lang.NET 2009. It seems like every time I see one of his summaries, my reading and projects lists grow.

Newspeak and Hopscotch
More reading here. Ted also links indirectly to the video of Gilad Bracha's talk.

Powershell

[Jeffrey Snover] seemed to think that UNIX shells could gain a fair amount of PowerShell’s capabilities by recognizing that pipes ship bytestreams, adopting a data format (like JSON or XML) for those byte streams, and proceeding from there. That might be true technically, but that would be a huge cultural change for that community.

Hm... imagine a /usr/bin_json/ sitting alongside /usr/bin. The first prototypes of the utilities therein could be based on David Beazley's tutorial "A Curious Course on Coroutines and Concurrency". (Start at slide 34 of the presentation slides.)

Monads
[Erik Meijer] then used mindless symbol pushing to demonstrate that [IEnumerable and IObservable] were duals of each other, and that they obeyed the rules for monads.

I'm so far behind on terminology... what the heck is a monad? Google suggests it's what Pythonistas would call a list comprehension or a generator expression.

Favorite Quote
I suspect that this is the only conference I will go to all year where Macs are the minority.

2009/04/10

Update: The TSA oversteps its bounds. Again.

(My earlier note is here.)

.:: Aero-News Network: The Aviation and Aerospace World's Daily/Real-Time News and Information Service ::.:

"Rex Tippetts of Grand Junction's Walker Field (GJT) estimates he'll need 2,000 additional security checks and badges. 'It's out of control. We have a large maintenance operation here with 400 people. We have a large interagency fire-fighting operation here, with maintenance facilities.'
To defray costs of the programs, pilots needing access to the ramp at Grand Junction will be charged $130 each for badges... which will not be honored at any other airport."


AOPA Online: Pilots unhappy with TSA security directive:
"Under the current version of the directive, pilots based [emph. added] at air carrier airports are required to undergo a security threat assessment and receive a security badge in order to continue to have unescorted access to their airports."


AOPA seems to be less concerned than Aero-News Network about Security Directive 8F. AOPA indicates that the directive requires security badges for GA pilots, but only at their home airports. ANN seems to interpret the directive to mean that pilots will need badges for all subject commercial airports which they visit. Or else, on arrival at such an airport, to remain in their cockpits until a badged escort arrives.

Either way, it's a PITA. One might think TSA was trying to destroy general aviation.

2009/04/09

Ford plans to increase efficiency by dramatically reducing weight

Ford plans to increase efficiency by dramatically reducing weight:

"Ford plans to cut 500 to 750 pounds of flab from each automobile that it redesigns. A reduction of weight on this magnitude should allow Ford to reduce the size of the engine powering the vehicle, further increasing fuel efficiency. "


Has Amory Lovins (or perhaps Bright Automotive) been consulting with Ford?

2009/04/02

Seagate, new Mac Mini, Firewire vs. USB

I recently bought a new Mac Mini, and wanted to connect my ~ 2 year-old Seagate 500GB drive[1] to it. I'd hooked up a couple of other drives via USB without incident. But the Seagate started giving me headaches right away.

Folders on the Seagate kept disappearing. When I'd try to disconnect the drive to cycle power on it, the Finder would report that it was still in use. If I went ahead and cycled power, I'd get a nasty warning dialog, but the drive would come back undamaged.

The system logs showed that the kernel started getting read errors on the drive just before each disappearing act.

Sometimes the problems would start almost as soon as the drive was recognized by the system. Sometimes they'd appear more than eight hours after the drive came online.

I've used this Seagate for a couple of years with no problems, on an iMac, via Firewire 400. I tried connecting it to the iMac again, this time via USB. No disappearing folders. Hmm.

I've read reports of Mac and Windows users having issues with Seagate drives whose firmware settings cause them to spin down after a few minutes of inactivity; they never spin back up. That doesn't seem to be the cause of this intermittent problem, but I can't rule it out.

In any case, a few days ago I ordered a Firewire 800-400 cable from Amazon, and used it to connect the Seagate to the Mac Mini's FW 800 port. So far — fingers crossed — all is well!



[1] It's an ST3500641CBRK.